Is Starlink Playing Chess While the Carriers Play Checkers?
Interesting games afoot in wirelss
By Tim McDonald | Synthetic Wisdom
The U.S. wireless industry just saw a major shift, but not in the way most people think.
During the Super Bowl, T-Mobile and Starlink ran an ad showcasing satellite-to-phone emergency connectivity—not just for T-Mobile customers but also for Verizon and AT&T users. While the market has largely interpreted this as a sign of T-Mobile’s strength, I’d argue it’s actually a sign of something far more interesting: a power shift away from traditional carriers and toward satellite operators, particularly Starlink.
This could mark the beginning of a new paradigm—one where the carriers no longer control the network but instead become just another layer in a broader connectivity ecosystem dominated over time by space-based infrastructure.
Let’s break this down.
The T-Mobile–Starlink Deal: A Strategic Necessity or a Position of Weakness?
When T-Mobile and Starlink first announced their partnership in 2022, it looked like a game-changer for T-Mobile. The idea of offering satellite-powered messaging (and eventually voice and data) directly to mobile devices seemed like a major differentiator.
At the time, it was positioned as an exclusive partnership, giving T-Mobile customers an advantage over AT&T and Verizon. But the Super Bowl ad tells a different story: the service will be available to customers of all major carriers.
This raises a critical question:
Did T-Mobile choose to allow Verizon and AT&T onto Starlink’s network?
Or was T-Mobile forced to accept a non-exclusive deal because Starlink held the real leverage?
I suspect the latter.
The Power Shift Toward Starlink
Historically, wireless carriers have held the dominant position in the connectivity ecosystem. They owned the spectrum, built the networks, and controlled the consumer relationship. But several key trends have started to erode that power:
Direct-to-Device Satellite Capability
Starlink doesn’t need cell towers to deliver coverage. It can beam connectivity straight to mobile devices via low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites.
If this technology matures, spectrum scarcity becomes less of a competitive advantage, weakening the traditional carriers.
Regulatory Favorability
The FCC and other U.S. agencies have strong incentives to support satellite broadband, especially for rural and emergency connectivity.
Starlink, with its deep government ties, is well-positioned to win regulatory battles over spectrum and service access.
Market Demand for Ubiquitous Connectivity
Consumers increasingly expect connectivity everywhere—from cities to remote locations.
Satellite operators are uniquely positioned to meet that demand, while traditional carriers are still bound by their physical infrastructure.
These factors suggest that Starlink didn’t need T-Mobile as much as T-Mobile needed Starlink. And if T-Mobile wasn’t able to secure an exclusive deal, it implies that Starlink is holding the cards in this relationship.
The C-Band Spectrum Battle: A Proxy War in the Making?
Beyond satellite messaging, there’s another high-stakes game playing out: the fight for additional mid-band spectrum.
The FCC is expected to auction off more C-band (3.1–3.45 GHz), with two main factions vying for access:
AT&T and Verizon, which need more mid-band spectrum to compete with T-Mobile’s deep holdings at 2.5 GHz.
Starlink, which could use additional spectrum to expand its direct-to-device capabilities and integrate satellite-terrestrial services.
T-Mobile, which already has a major spectrum advantage, may align with Starlink in this battle. Why?
Blocking AT&T and Verizon from gaining spectrum keeps them at a disadvantage.
Helping Starlink win spectrum could further erode the carriers’ competitive moat.
A stronger Starlink means a more favorable partnership for T-Mobile in the future.
If Starlink secures C-band access, it would further entrench its role as a dominant player—not just in satellite broadband, but in the overall U.S. wireless industry.
How Does Globalstar and Apple Fit Into This?
While much of the attention is on Starlink, Globalstar and Apple have been quietly carving out their own position in direct-to-device satellite connectivity.
Apple’s Partnership With Globalstar
Apple partnered with Globalstar to enable satellite emergency SOS services on the iPhone 14 and 15.
Unlike Starlink’s broader approach, Apple’s service is tightly controlled, focusing on emergency messaging rather than general connectivity.
Apple committed significant investment into Globalstar’s satellite infrastructure, signaling a long-term commitment to satellite integration.
What’s Next for Globalstar?
Apple Could Expand Its Satellite Capabilities
If Apple pushes deeper into satellite communication, it could build out a proprietary global satellite network for premium iPhone users.
A future where Apple owns part of the network stack, reducing dependency on traditional carriers, is not far-fetched.
Globalstar Could Become a Bigger Player in the Satellite Wars
While it’s smaller than Starlink, Globalstar has existing FCC spectrum licenses that could be leveraged for expanded direct-to-device services.
If Apple deepens its investment, Globalstar could grow beyond emergency services into full satellite messaging and voice capabilities.
A Possible Apple-T-Mobile Rivalry in Satellite?
If T-Mobile and Starlink push toward broader satellite connectivity, Apple may be forced to respond with a deeper investment in Globalstar or another satellite partner.
This could create a competitive dynamic between Starlink (partnering with carriers) and Apple (going direct to consumers).
Apple’s approach is more controlled than Starlink’s, but if it expands satellite functionality, it could disrupt traditional carriers just as much.
Investment & Strategic Implications
The market has reacted positively to T-Mobile’s partnership with Starlink, assuming it strengthens T-Mobile’s competitive position. But what if this is actually a sign of weakness?
T-Mobile may be:
The first carrier to adopt satellite-to-phone services
But not the only one—and possibly not the one in control.
If Starlink and Apple continue to gain power, we could see a major shift where:
Carriers become dependent on satellite connectivity providers instead of owning and controlling all of their network infrastructure.
Spectrum becomes less of a differentiator as hybrid terrestrial-satellite networks emerge.
Starlink and Apple capture more of the economic value traditionally held by the carriers.
For investors, this means:
Watch for signs of Starlink expanding its service model. Does it start offering direct consumer plans or wholesale network access?
Pay attention to regulatory moves on C-band spectrum. If Starlink wins new mid-band spectrum, it could signal an even bigger role in shaping the future of connectivity.
Keep an eye on Apple. If Apple deepens its relationship with Globalstar, it could introduce a premium satellite communication layer that bypasses traditional carriers entirely.
This may not just be a case of T-Mobile outmaneuvering its competitors. It may be the first sign that **the old rules of the telecom industry are breaking down—**and that a new power center is emerging in the sky.
Tim McDonald | Synthetic Wisdom
Exploring the intersection of networks, markets, and the future of technology.